poster 2015, designer unknown: Dream of a strong army_Make the strength of our nation known. Rejuvenate China. 强军梦 — 扬我国威振兴中华. Qiang jun meng — yang woguo wei zhenxing Zhonghua, refer https://chineseposters.net/posters/e37-946, © No copyright infringement intended. All rights belong to their respective copyright owners
May 17 2025_With the on-going daily Trump show and related chaos & confusion, it’s easy to overlook the original and main instigators of the current dangerous global instability and growing regional tensions: Vladimir Putin & Xi Jinping, ‘’best friends forever’’.
While we have every reason to be very concerned about the political developments in the US and the undermining of its democratic institutions, if you would ask mijngroeve what’s the most threatening aspect of the today’s world, we’d say it’s the fact that Putin has more unchecked power than any other Russian leader since Stalin. And that Xi has more unchecked power than any other Chinese leader since Mao. We would even argue that the global political and economical impact of Putin and Xi is far bigger than their more notorious predecessors.
Global freedom faces a dire threat by this authoritarian, violent and paranoid duo. For much of the past 10 years these 2 dictators have worked persistently to tear down the existing international order and the controls it imposed on their ambitions. The fruits of their efforts and actions have now become fully visible. Though they in reality are all but best friends, they share a determination to create a new world order that will better serve the interests of Russia and China as defined by them.
Each has become dramatically more repressive over the past decade, with the PRC morphing into a neo-totalitarian surveillance state and Russia degrading into a rogue state driven by a war economy. Both states have become increasingly dominated by their single rulers who, feeling insecure in power, have tightened repression and incited nationalism to strengthen domestic control.
The emboldening of Putin and Xi
Mijngroeve believes several key international events have emboldened these leaders in their determination and ambitions:
the 2008 financial crisis and the perceived downfall of the West, in particular the US
the lack of a strong Western response to the Russian invasion in Georgia in 2008
the lack of a strong Western response to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014
the lack of a strong Western response to the complete Chinese take over of Hong Kong in 2020
The unprovoked aggression by Russia against Ukraine with the tacit approval of China is the most blatant example of what may happen if dictatorial ambitions and unconstrained leaders are not kept in check by the global community of liberal democracies.
Whether Xi was preinformed about or even sanctioned Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ahead of the actual Russian attack is still an open question: but regardless of the answer, in case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, mijngroeve has no doubt that Xi can count on Putin’s full support. Moreover, the economic cooperation between these 2 dictators as well as with autocrats elsewhere in the world has given them the capacity to weather economic sanctions and stick to their ambitions.
Putin and Xi have succeeded in severely eroding the post WWII belief that democracy is the only viable path to prosperity and security, while encouraging more authoritarian approaches to governance. They have incited instability in Europe (war in Ukraine, cyberattacks, espionage, arson, sea cable cutting), the Middle East (Yemen, Syria, Gaza), and support pariah regimes (North Korea, Iran, Venezuela) around the world. At the same time, democracies are being harmed from within by illiberal forces, including opportunistic politicians willing to corrupt and demolish the very institutions that brought them to power.
Tipping point
The global order is approaching a tipping point, and if democracy’s defenders do not work together to help guarantee freedom for all people, the authoritarian model could ultimately prevail.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Xi has been playing the leading role in promoting autocratic norms via its Belt & Road initiative and its digital Silk Road. The PRC offers an alternative to democracies as a source of international support and investment, helping wannabe autocrats to cement their positions, copy aspects of the CCP governance model (f.e internet surveillance), and enrich their regimes while completely ignoring principles like transparency, human rights and fair trade.
At the same time, the PRC has been using its vast economic power and even military threats to silence international criticism of its violations of democratic principles and human rights or of its absurd territorial claims. Beijing uses lies and fear to hide and cover up its own failures and mistakes, pretending to be a supporter of multilateral institutions and a true harbinger of democracy and global equality, while exploiting every opportunity to nail to the cross the shortcomings of the real democracies of the world.
The CCP’s global reach
The CCP has managed to spread its tentacles into institutions, news agencies, political parties, business associations and universities around the world. As a result of China’s economic clout and relentless propaganda machine, more and more countries across the globe have started to parrot Chinese narratives and/or stay quiet about Chinese aggression and wrongdoings. To give just one conspicuous example, while Middle Eastern regimes have been very vocal about the tragic situation of the Palestinian population in Gaza, their simultaneous silence on the yearlong Chinese abuses against muslims in Xinjiang has been deafening. Even worse, many governments in the Middle East along with pliant religious scholars and establishments have emerged as important collaborators in the CCP’s drive to Sinicize Islam within the PRC.
Besides this international complacency, it’s important to not forget that Xi -just like Putin- can also count on considerable support of his own population for his merciless authoritarianism. 75 years of CCP ruling, dreary weaponization of historical memory and brainwashing have ingrained strong anti-liberal norms and values in people’s mindsets and planted a misplaced confidence in authoritarianism. While cynism about the CCP is rampant in the PRC, many Chinese people and enterprises do nevertheless genuinely support and believe in Xi’s autocratic ways and dream to ‘’rejuvenate China’’ and make it the center of the world, viewing democracies as ineffective or hypocritical, a perception reinforced by the impression that democratic governments themselves have concluded that supporting democracy abroad is a doomed enterprise as f.e. evidenced by the abrupt American withdrawal from Afghanistan and Trump’s bashing of Zelensky.
Europe’s continued mixed messaging
The response of European governments in the face of the PRC’s assertiveness and threats could at best be described as a very mixed bag, ranging from regrets and remorse over the shown naivety towards Beijing and calls to better defend our national security, critical infrastructure and market, to pleas to not only return to business as usual but to even more economic cooperation and integration with China, up to outright complicity with and unashamed admiration and praise for Xi and the Chinese governance model.
Unsurprizingly, in response to the worsening relationship between Trump’s America and the EU, some European political leaders and business execs have immediately chosen to cozy up to Xi again. They seek to attract new Chinese foreign investment, hoping to revive their local industries and to create jobs in their home countries and grow their market shares in China.
Many of these leaders motivate their policies by saying China is indispensable for Europe’s growth, modernization and energy transition.
The green transition and the powergrid (Solar panels, EVs, batteries, power inverters, wind turbines) were identified by the CCP as a strategic opportunity many years ago, as it had noticed Europe’s vulnerabilities in this area. While overall Chinese foreign direct investment in the EU has dropped significantly in Europe since 2019, it has increasingly been concentrated in the EV & renewables sector, underlining Beijing’s determination on gaining strategic influence in this field.
These investments have predominantly gone to European countries which have been very sympathetic or non-critical to Beijing, such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Hungary and Serbia.
Underestimating China‘s fast advancements in EV and green technologies over the past decade has proven to be a very costly and highly consequential miscalculation by Europe. European automotive companies have been slow to innovate in the EV sector, trailing behind the USA and PRC. Today, the EU is China‘s largest export market for EVs, with 40 percent of Chinese EV exports intended for Europe.
Germany’s conundrum
As some probably still remember, Germany’s once powerful solar power industry has been completely wiped out by the PRC following similar European naivety, lethargy and complacency. Chinese EV imports and the failure of European producers to build competitive alternatives in time for the green transition pose an existential economic threat to the European automotive industry and millions of jobs.
China’s EV sector has rapidly turned into a global powerhouse, with government-backed subsidies fuelling overproduction and enabling Chinese automakers to dominate international markets, including in Europe. Meanwhile in the Chinese market German brands are being replaced by local brands, that are protected by favourable Chinese government treatment and incentives.
Ironically the German car industry, facing this fierce competition from Chinese brands not only in China, but also in third country markets and even in Germany itself, is now calling for deepening the integration with the PRC, meaning German firms would innovate and manufacture in the PRC not only for China, but more and more from and with China, for the world, reconciling German corporations’ global strategies with Chinese industrial goals.
In other words, German firms are positioning themselves not just to compete in China, but to become partners in the globalization of Chinese companies.
Can anybody provide any instance where a European company has entered into a joint-venture with a Chinese partner and come out on top in the last 2 decades?
It needs no say that increasing reliance on Chinese EV imports and deepening of relations with Chinese competitors and suppliers would directly run counter to the economic security policy goals of reducing vulnerabilities and diversifying supply chains as recently formulated by Brussels. Apart from the economic security that’s at stake, expanding the reliance on China for Europe’s green transition carries an extremely high national security risk too.
Last but not least, if Europe relies on China for its green transition this dependency could be weaponized by Beijing to stifle criticism of its material support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its own aggression against Taiwan and its deplorable human rights record.
Multinational business execs tend to downplay or ignore the dangers related to new Chinese lawfare (f.e. Counter-Espionage Law, Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law) for their operations in the PRC and the safety of their Chinese and foreign employees. This lawfare may make foreign companies subject to the jurisdiction of China, while most are likely also subject to the jurisdiction of countries that may have imposed/impose sanctions or export controls that have impacts in China, whereby compliance with another nation’s sanctions or export controls risks violating Chinese law.
In other words, the Chinese state has a set of new laws to its disposal by which it can easily accuse and punish foreign enterprises and personnel for not complying to Chinese laws: not a nice prospect in a country with with an almost 100% criminal conviction rate and no separation between the judiciary and the state.
What Germany needs is not only a Wende in its defense policies, but an urgent Wende in its China strategy as well…
The China threat is real
The threat we face from the Chinese Communist Party is real and growing. Whether it’s telecom hacks or remotely accessing solar and battery inverters, if needed the CCP won’t stop at anything to target Europe’s sensitive infrastructure and components. Governments and companies who believe Xi won’t ever resort to these kind of tactics are fooling themselves.
People who say these risks are overblown better think twice. Many of today’s technology products (batteries, LiDAR devices, camera’s, power inverters) can be activated remotely, even after having been in sleeping mode for a long period of time. And as a small reminder, not that long ago Chinese boats have been cutting sea cables close to our European shores…
More than a decade ago, Europe naively rolled out the red carpet for the first Chinese high-tech Trojan horse named Huawei, the CCP’s lovebaby, in order to make our societies, cities and telcom networks ‘’safe, smart and modern.’’ At least, so we were told by European politicians (Rutte, Johson, Merkel to name just a few) and multiple telecom business execs. The CCP has expressed its gratitude in the form of a daily increase in Chinese cyberattacks on European governmental organizations, companies, hospitals and universities.
Xi Jinping has declared technological innovation the “main battlefield” in China’s quest for global preeminence. His broader technological ambition buttresses China’s military-civil fusion strategy, which annihilates barriers between military and civilian entities to mobilize the latter in full service of the former.
All Chinese tech companies, including those involved in the green transition, have no other choice than to be part of Xí’s China Dream and assist in the civilian military fusion and self-reliance mission. This implies that these companies could even be used to collect valuable information on Europe’s companies, map member states’ strategic vulnerabilities and get involved into espionage or sabotage whenever Chairman Xi demands.
Once embedded in vital European infrastructural and energy systems, Beijing could not just gather intelligence — it could prepare the battlefield for future crises by sowing doubts about the reliability of the EU’s own infrastructure. Furthermore, any technical breakthroughs via JVs in commercial sectors could directly come to the benefit of the PLA as well as China’s intelligence and security organizations.
Xi’s pursuit of technological dominance does not merely aim to fortify China’s economy; it seeks to reposition Beijing as the central architect of tomorrow’s innovations, global standards, and international norms. Xi’s hope is that communist China can win without even having to wage a real war.
A clear message
Let’s spell it out one more time to leave no room for misunderstanding:
There will never be any significant political reform under Xi
There will never be a truly free market in Xi’s China
There will never be any real level playing field in Xi’s China
There will never be any in-depth sharing of key Chinese technology and know how with Western partners by Xi’s China
There will not be any Chinese enterprise that can afford to ignore or neglect Xi’s China Dream
Truly effective democracy support should not be subordinated to a free country’s short-term economic, military, or geopolitical interests, all of which would actually be best served by a long-term rollback of authoritarian practices.
The demolishing of global democratic norms by Putin and Xi can still be reversed. The liberal West urgently needs to get its act together. What is needed in the right balance of hard power and idealism. The EU must defend the rule of law, liberal norms and values, and fair democratic practices among its members. There should be no more kowtowing to Xi: the EU must play a much more assertive role commensurate with its economic power.
Sadly President Trump is significantly weakening the Western alliance, eroding Ukraine’s ability to hold off Russia and seriously damaging any efforts to form a common democratic front against the PRC’ economic, political and military malpractices.In the pursuit of stability, the Trump Doctrine concentrates on short term commercial deals, even with foes and enemies, assuming mutual interest in prosperity can overcome any ideological differences and forge a lasting stability. This doctrine is devoid of any interest in promoting values such as liberty or democracy.
It also ignores the fact that part of the behavior and actions of Putin and Xi towards the West is actually driven by ideological and historical revisionist motivations and impulses and not just by transactional or opportunistic commercial considerations.
Equally worrisome is the fact that the European parliament is filled with anti-EU or EU skeptic MPs, whose short-sighted populism & narrow minded nationalism are seriously hampering the creation of united front against Beijing as well. But all this should not stop Brussels from greatly enlarging and speeding up its efforts to build closer ties to a like-minded group of democracies including the UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, showing the rest of the world real democracy is still very much alive and kicking.
This group of countries should better coordinate their Russia & China strategies. Stronger cooperation between these countries also holds a lot of promise for innovation, growth and modernization of our industries, and their unison would resonate around the world. Together they can better address the China challenge in the Global South.
Liberal democracies need to counter the military ambitions of China and prevent the takeover of international organizations by authoritarian powers and their supporters. Again, a much closer coordination between the liberal democracies is a prerequisite. Meanwhile they (and their citizens) should be prepared to pay the price for protecting liberal values and principles, realizing that hypocrisy and short term mercantilism is a losing strategy in the longer run, not just for one of them, but for all.
It’s the duty of the democratic elite to raise awareness among their business communities and electorates about what’s at stake.
Values and security above profits
In the end the question will be about how much pain democratic countries are willing to bear to protect their democracies and economies, while speeding up the de-risking process from the PRC. It will come at a severe cost and will demand a tremendous effort. But without these efforts, we risk to pay a much higher price: a sustained assault on our liberal democratic values and freedom and a submission to authoritarianism, state-capitalism and economic coercion.
A strong push back by part of the European business community against a political framework of heightened tensions and disputes with China is to be anticipated by Brussels. Or to say it differently, a fundamental dilemma is rapidly arising in Europe in the relationship with the PRC: what benefits individual European member states or corporations may no longer align with what benefits the EU as a whole in the defense of our security and freedom.
How to navigate and resolve that dilemma will be crucial for Europe in the coming years…
refer f.e. also:
https://www.csri.global/research/charged-with-consequence
https://www.mijngroeve.nl/history/europe-and-china-crucial-decisions/
https://www.mijngroeve.nl/history/xis-china-in-23-points/
https://www.mijngroeve.nl/history/china-holland-ai-ai/
https://www.mijngroeve.nl/history/the-eu-china-systemic-rivalry_ii/
https://www.mijngroeve.nl/history/the-eu-china-systemic-rivalry_i/
https://merics.org/en/report/germanys-dilemma-over-strategic-recalibration-china
https://rhg.com/research/robust-momentum-despite-auto-slowdown-q4-2024-update/
https://rhg.com/research/from-fast-lane-to-gridlock-have-chinese-car-exports-peaked/